As the 2025–2026 La Liga season enters its winter phase, the clash between Sevilla and Athletic Bilbao on January 25, 2026, at 01:30 CET promises intense competition. Below is a data – driven analysis based on the latest updates:
1. Team Form & Recent Performance
- Sevilla (Home): The hosts are struggling in La Liga, with only 3 wins from 14 matches this season. Their home form is particularly worrying—securing just 1 victory in their last 4 league games. Despite winter signings aiming to boost morale, consistency remains elusive.
- Athletic Bilbao (Away): Away from San Mamés, Athletic Bilbao has lost 3 of their last 6 league fixtures (scoring 10 points total). However, a recent 3–2 Champions League win over Red Star Belgrade hints at hidden resilience when momentum shifts.
2. Injury & Squad Updates
- Sevilla: Key defensive absences loom:
- Goalkeeper Bono (suspended) and defender Mendy (injured) are unavailable, forcing manager Jorge Sampaoli to reshuffle.
- Youngster Alejandro Aranda could return after impressing in a prior 2–2 draw vs. Eibar, offering depth at center – back.
- Athletic Bilbao: Disciplinary issues have hit hard:
- Midfielder Raúl García (suspended) and defender Iñigo Ruiz (injured) miss the game.
- Coach Ernesto Valverde may rely on Álexis Ruano (returning from a ban) to stabilize the backline.
3. Head – to – Head & Tactical Context
- Historical Edge: Athletic Bilbao dominates recent encounters:
- Out of the last 5 meetings, Sevilla has won none, with Athletic Bilbao claiming 3 victories (including a 3–2 win in August 2025).
- Sevilla’s last win over Athletic Bilbao was in 2023, giving the visitors psychological leverage.
- Tactical Styles: Sevilla typically prioritizes possession under Sampaoli, while Athletic Bilbao relies on physicality and quick counterattacks. With both teams missing key defenders, midfield control will be critical.
4. Score Prediction
Sevilla’s home struggles, Athletic Bilbao’s resilience (despite injuries), and historical trends point to a tight affair. Defensive errors and tactical discipline are likely to decide the outcome, with a draw the most probable result.
Predicted Score: Sevilla 1–1 Athletic Bilbao
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